NEW YORK – Wal-Mart Stores Inc. unsettled
the retail industry Thursday, reporting a sales decline for
the first time in 10 years and warning that its holiday
sales would be disappointing. The discounter's news, coupled
with a jump in unemployment benefit claims, raised concerns
about the strength of the retailing sector at a critical
time of the year.
Wal-Mart's confirmation of weak November sales and its
announcement that its December same-store sales gain would
be no better than 1 percent came as the nation's retailers
reported an overall mixed performance for the month.
Same-store sales reflect business at stores open at least a
year and are the industry standard for measuring a company's
strength.
Wal-Mart's
disappointment was a sharp contrast with results from
discount rival Target Corp., which beat Wall Street
forecasts, and Federated Department Stores Inc., which far
exceeded expectations. Other retailers had mixed sales; J.C.
Penney Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. both fell short of
Wall Street projections.
Industry analysts generally believed the world's largest
retailer is struggling with its own internal problems, not
an industry-wide malaise. Still, the discounter's woes
raised the possibility that it would incite increasingly
aggressive price wars this season that would slice into
retail profits. And a Labor Department report Thursday that
showed a surprising increase in claims for jobless benefits
last week added uncertainty to the outlook for holiday
sales.
The timing of Wal-Mart's news couldn't have been worse,
coming just after most consumers started holiday shopping.
While many retailers had a strong Thanksgiving weekend,
Wal-Mart warned Saturday that its November sales would be
weaker than expected.
Wal-Mart's 0.1 percent dip in same-store sales for the
month is in line with the reduced forecast from analysts
surveyed by Thomson Financial, which forecast unchanged
growth.
Including a drop in gasoline revenues from its Sam's Club
division, which Wal-Mart did not include in its calculation,
same store-sales fell 0.3 percent.
Wal-Mart has struggled in recent months with a mix of
problems, including the fact that its lower-income customers
were hurt by soaring gas prices. But the company's
lackluster sales have persisted even as the cost of gas
eased, an indication that there are other factors that are
dragging down Wal-Mart's results.
“This is pretty discouraging,” said Ken Perkins,
president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in
Swampscott, Mass. But he added that Wal-Mart's weak sales
“will not be a harbinger of a broad-based weakness across
the retail sector.”
But he added, “I think it will be a promotional
Christmas. Stores will slash prices to drive consumers. And
Wal-Mart is going to be first and foremost.”
Wal-Mart's discount stores suffered a 0.5 percent
decline, while Sam's Clubs had a 2.0 percent increase.
One of Wal-Mart's main problems is that its strategy to
broaden its appeal to higher-income shoppers with upscale
merchandise was poorly executed. It filled its fall clothing
racks with too many trendy items like skinny jeans that
shoppers just didn't want.
Wal-Mart's weakness dragged down the International
Council of Shopping Centers-UBS same-store sales tally for
November to 2.1 percent, below the original 3 percent growth
forecast. Excluding Wal-Mart, the tally rose 4.0 percent.
Based on overall disappointing November results, ICSC
pared down its growth forecast for the November-December
period combined, forecasting a range of 2.5 percent to 3
percent, down from 3 percent.
While retailers have hopes for a decent season, there are
concerns about how confident consumers are. The latest
measure of confidence by the Conference Board fell during
November, and reports of job cuts and buyouts could make
consumers even more uneasy.
Thursday's Labor Department report also raised questions
about consumers' comfort level.The department said 357,000
claims were filed last week, up 34,000 from the previous
week. Economists said it was too soon to tell whether the
unexpected increase indicated a weakening in the job market.
October figures on consumer income and spending issued
Thursday showed that consumers had reason to be upbeat, at
least during that month. The Commerce Department said
incomes rose a healthy 0.4 percent, while spending rose 0.2
percent after a decline in September. The data was
encouraging but does not guarantee that consumers shopping
for the holidays will feel like spending freely – something
that was clear the day after Thanksgiving, when shoppers
focused on getting the best bargain, gravitating toward
early bird specials and then leaving stores when the deals
disappeared.
“This tells me that the customers is ever savvy about
shopping for markdowns,” said John Morris, a managing
director at Wachovia Securities “The next couple of weeks
will be really telling.”
Target's 5.9 percent same-store sales increase topped
forecasts of a 5.7 percent gain. But Costco reported a 5
percent gain in same-store sales, below the 5.7 percent
estimate.
Among department stores, Federated, which acquired May
Department Stores Co. last year, reported a robust 8.5
percent same-store sales gain, beating the 4.8 percent
estimate. Same-store sales include only Macy's and
Bloomingdale's stores that existed before the deal closed.
Federated also raised its December forecast.
Saks Inc.'s 7.2 percent gain in same-store sales beat the
7 percent estimate.
But results from Kohl's Corp. and Penney were
disappointing. Penney said same-store sales at its
department stores rose 1.4 percent, falling short of the 3.7
percent forecast from Wall Street. Kohl's had a 3.7 percent
gain in same-store sales, below the 4.8 percent prediction.
Gap Inc., which is still struggling to find the right
fashion formula, suffered an 8 percent drop in same-store
sales, worse than the 5.4 percent forecast.
Teen retailers generally did well. Wet Seal Inc.'s 5.5
percent same-store gain beat the 4 percent estimate.